Let’s start off: Anyone else have Antonio Brown in two leagues last night? No? Sorry to hear that. Week 11 actually has better match-ups than the last couple weeks. We have the last four teams on bye: Panthers, Jets, 49ers and Colts. It’ll be interesting this week. There are some teams/division than can either extend their lead or have the race get close going into the last quarter of the season. Let’s get into the picks.
Lions (-3) at Bears- This is going to be an interesting match-up. With the cold weather, this is when Matthew Stafford starts to fold. The Bears just need to not beat themselves. John Fox needs to give his team a chance to win. That’s exactly what he didn’t do last week. I’m going with the upset. Bears 20-17.
Jaguars (-7.5) at Browns- Browns are still winless. Jaguars are the best defense that the Browns have played the last 4 weeks. Jaguars 27-13.
Ravens (-2) at Packers- Ravens are favored? At Lambeau? That’s insane no matter who’s playing QB for the Packers. We can stop asking the age old question of: Is Joe Flacco elite? He’s not. No matter how bad the Packers defense has been, the Ravens offense is equally as bad. Packers 17-10.
Buccaneers at Dolphins (-1)- I’d say this is the worst game on the slate for the weekend. Dolphins have been in shambles as well as Buccaneers. Winston is out for a couple more weeks if not longer. There’s no reason to bring him back if they don’t have to. Neither team has an identity on offense, but I think the Dolphins have the better defense. Dolphins 24-20.
Rams at Vikings (-2)- If you told me last year that we would be discussing a pivotal match-up with the Rams, I’d tell you you’re crazy. The Rams are the real deal this year. Both defenses are top notch. I’m giving the edge to the Rams on offense. McVay knows what he wants to do and they get it done every week. The game is in Minnesota, but weather won’t be an issue with indoor stadium. Rams 28-27.
Redskins at Saints (-7.5)- Redskins seem to be in every game they play, but can’t put a full game together. Saints seem to be reeling right now on defense as well as in their run game. Drew Brees has always been significantly better at home and now he has an actual run game. Saints 34-21.
Chiefs (-10.5) at Giants- I’ve said it before: It’s hard for away teams to cover this kind of spread. Steelers had this spread against the Colts last week without being able to cover. Chiefs aren’t playing their best football right now. They need to get Kareem Hunt going and this is the week for that. Chiefs 24-17.
Cardinals at Texans (-1)- Texans are only favored because they’re the home team. Otherwise, this would be a pick em game. As of right now, Tom Savage is still the quarterback for the Texans. But the Cardinals are either starting Drew Stanton or Blaine Gabbert. Oooff. That is not a match-up that I ever thought we would see. Since Savage has had a couple games under his belt, give me Texans 20-16.
Bills at Chargers (-4)- I don’t like teams going across country to win games. You’re probably sick of me saying it, but I don’t like it. Especially when the Bills are starting a rookie quarterback. This is a recipe for disaster for the Bills. Chargers 24-17.
Bengals at Broncos (-2.5)- Bengals are 1-3 the last 4 games and the Broncos just look like they’re in shambles. Brock Osweiler hits more guys in the head than he does his receivers hands. They’ve actually had a pretty tough schedule with Patriots, Eagles and Chiefs during their 5 game losing streak. I don’t trust Andy Dalton whether he’s on the road or on home. Broncos 14-10.
Patriots (-7) at Raiders- This game is actually being played in Mexico City. I’ve read reports that the air density with affect the special teams play so field position will be a big factor in this game. Patriots are the Patriots and it seems that the Raiders have some soul searching to do. The game feels like it’s going to be a shootout. Patriots 34-28.
Eagles (-4.5) at Cowboys- Cowboys couldn’t get anything going last week without Elliot. Eagles are arguably the best team in the NFL (behind Patriots). I don’t see the Cowboys being able to lock down Wentz. Even if they do, they still have Ajayi for the ground game. 24-10.
Falcons at Seahawks (-3)- As bad as Matt Ryan has looked this year, this seems like a game that he wins. Last year, they lost on a blown pass interference call (typical for Seahawks at home). This will be a redemption game for the Falcons. They also need to get something going to make a playoff run. Seahawks lost Richard Sherman so that’s two years in a row without one of their top defensive players. Falcons 27-24.
There you have it folks. Those are my picks and I’m sticking to them. Who do you have with this great slate of games this weekend?